In Turkey, consumer prices increased in October 2019 by 2.00 percent month-on-month, more than double the September 2019 0.99 percent increase.
The outcome of October 2019 came in the backdrop of heavy house and service price rises; food and non-alcoholic beverages; transport; and garments and shoes.
Meanwhile, inflation dropped further from 9.3% in September 019 to 8.6% in October 2019, a nearly 3 minimum.
The index reflected the second consecutive month of less than 10 percent inflation due to weak domestic demand, a much more stable currency, and a favorable base effect, inflation fell to 25.2 percent in the same month last year due to the currency crisis, compensating increases in energy and fuel prices.
While the recent release provides the Central Bank with additional room to further lower its interest rate, inflation is expected to increase again in the remainder of this year as the base effects become less solid. The Central Bank expects inflation to end this year at 10.0 percent, but Goldman Sachs analysts are considerably less optimistic and "expect inflation level to start to rise again" due to less favorable base influences and "attain + 11 percent level by the end of the year." Yarkin Cebeci, JPMorgan economist, added that "inflation is likely to remain double-digit until the final quarter of 2020."
Ultimately, core inflation, which does not counte volatile prices such as energy and food, dropped from 7.5% in September 2019 to 6.7% in October 2019, while average yearly inflation fell from 18.3% to 16.8%.
Looking to the future, the inflation forecast for next year remains clouded in upside risks because of the currency volatility caused by the government's renewed focus on increasing economic growth as outlined in its new economic strategy.
In addition, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that they "believed that the authorities should prioritize growth over lowering inflation" and that "this drive for growth generates risks of Lira instability and higher inflation levels, along with lowering real rate buffers."