In November, Turkish consumer prices increased by 0.38% month-on-month,
significantly below the 2.00% rise of the previous month and marking a 5 month minimum. November's smoother increase was guided by lower food and non-alcoholic beverage price rises; transportation; housing and utilities; and garments and shoes.
Inflation, on the other hand, increased from 8.6% in October to 10.6% in November, completing a 2 month single digit inflation run. This was widely predicted, nevertheless, as inflation gained from a positive base effect due to the currency crisis of last year in September and October. Making comments on what the new monetary policy information means, Muhammet Mercan, ING Turkey's chief economist, observed that the print "will allow the bank to proceed to relax at the last year's rate-setting meeting."
Ultimately, core inflation, except volatile prices such as energy and food, grew from 6.7% in October to 9.3% in November, whereas average yearly inflation fell from 16.8% to 15.9%.
Next year's inflation forecast appears tainted in upside risks due to possible currency fluctuations as the government has renewed its emphasis on stepping up economic development. In addition, priority could be given to growth over reducing inflation.
Economic exe are expecting consumer price inflation at 10.7% by the end of 2020 and 9.5% by 2021.
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